Since July this year, China's new energy vehicle market has been surging for many years in a row, turning its head downward for four months in a row. So far, it has not converged, which is unexpected to many people.
Some people attribute the decline to the economic downturn and the decline of financial subsidies; some attribute the decline to the continuous fire, unstable quality and unstable residual value of vehicles; some attribute the decline to the imperfect charging infrastructure; some suspect that the national new energy vehicle strategy is unsustainable; some estimate that the national new energy vehicle technology route needs to be adjusted; some suspect that the national new energy vehicle strategy needs to be adjusted Replacing electric vehicles with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles; it is asserted that hydrogen energy vehicles are a great waste.
There is no doubt that all of the above statements are the reasons for the great decline of the new energy vehicle market, but the author believes that they are not the fundamental reasons. The fundamental reason is that in the coming 2020, China's new energy automobile industry will go to where the crossroads. Standing in front of this intersection, consumers, enterprises, industries and even some government officials have doubts. If these doubts are not solved, the new energy vehicle industry will be shaken and the new energy vehicle market will fluctuate.
Positioning of new energy vehicles in electrification
As early as the "fifteen" period (2001), the National 863 Plan "electric vehicle" major scientific and technological projects set up a hybrid electric vehicle (after adjustment for plug-in, increase program), pure electric vehicle, fuel cell vehicle development technology roadmap. All of the three technologies are electric.
Why does the national new energy vehicle strategy point to electrification? According to the experts participating in the policy formulation, new energy vehicles were given three major tasks at that time: first, to solve the problem of high dependence on foreign oil in China; second, to solve the problem of too large proportion of coal-fired power generation and serious air pollution in China; third, to solve the problem that China's automobile industry technology has lagged behind people for a long time, so as to realize overtaking in corners.
Now, it is clear that new energy vehicles have not been able to bear the burden of solving the problem of high dependence of oil on foreign countries and excessive proportion of coal-fired power generation, but it has shown the possibility of replacing fuel vehicles in large quantities, thus providing a promising way to solve the problem of less fuel consumption and less coal consumption. As for overtaking in curves, although this formulation has been questioned by many parties, it has been recognized that electric vehicles have greatly shortened the technological gap between China's automobile industry and developed countries.
New energy endows new energy vehicles with new tasks
With the great development of new energy vehicles, China's new energy industry has also made major breakthroughs. The national plan is: China's energy needs to realize the transformation with fossil energy as the main direction and renewable energy as the main direction. The opportunity to realize this transformation is the emergence of wind power and photoelectric industries. Authoritative data: in 2017, China's new installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation was 53.1gw, accounting for 54% of the world's new installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation, which is five times the second-largest new installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the United States (10.6gw). The new installed capacity of wind power generation is 19.7gw, 2.8 times of that of the second largest wind power generation in the United States.
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